Guy Posts

The complement of an event A is the set of all outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event A. Given the probability of an event, the probability of its complement (A’) can be found by subtracting the given probability from 1: P(A’) = 1 – P(A) There’s an [...]

Grant’s Personal Memoirs will appeal to today’s commanders—the people that control and guide the efforts of thousands of people within large institutions, corporations, and governments. The young adult will trudge through the pages—much like the young Grant trudged through the Mexican-American war—unable to see the big picture, but cognizant that it exists and that others [...]

We give special meaning to moments that transform our view of the past and shift our perspective of the future. A curious one occurred for me in the summer of 2006 when I watched a talk delivered by Sir Ken Robinson where he asks, are schools killing creativity? He argues that our education systems mirror [...]

The key take away from Jeff Jarvis’s What Would Google Do? is that “making money through controlling production, distribution, and marketing is a diminishing game.” Instead companies need to focus on becoming platforms upon which other people can do their business by becoming a hub for aggregating and distributing data. After reading the first 20 [...]

It’s a phenomenally difficult task to value an investment bank— a firm whose value largely derives from trust. When trust flows easily across all counter-parties, the system is efficient at moving capital from where it’s needed least to where it’s wanted most. When trust begins to dry up, the entire system implodes under the weight [...]

Let’s brainstorm. Or so I thought. Open brainstorming sessions, as explained by Keith Sawyer in Group Genius, achieve less than we might think. When a group’s focus is on simply getting ideas onto paper, their output is less effective than if led with a strict instruction to focus on generating quality ideas. A creative group [...]

“It seems to be almost a law of human nature that it is easier for people to agree on a negative program—on the hatred of an enemy.” – Hayek F.A. Hayek’s 1944 classic The Road to Serfdom serves as a clarion warning against concentrated government planning. He highlights Nazi Germany and asks his readers, do [...]

It’s difficult to write on a book that’s been elevated as highly as The Great Gatsby. So much has been said, by so many people that to move in the direction of exploring a greater, newer meaning would be akin to Gatsby pursuing Daisy Buchanan— an unrealistic goal, a delusion. Gatsby will never have Daisy. [...]

The blustery, dampened air put the world on edge. Pedestrians clung to their coats as they battled steady salvos of wind. Debris from shedding trees dotted the surface, susceptible still to the wake of a passing car. Colonies of light activated as the sun continued it’s subtle fade away. The crescendo of an economic liquidity [...]

But life, being what it is… Lehman, bankrupt; AIG, bailed out; Wachovia, welcome to Citigr… Wells Fargo. In 2008, while these dramas were unfolding, I wondered, who got this right? Who is standing tall? Who positioned themselves for this very event? How did they do it? The Greatest Trade Ever is about John Paulson’s epic [...]