The Wisdom of Insecurity
The complement of an event A is the set of all outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event A. Given the probability of an event, the probability of its complement (A’) can be found by subtracting the given probability from 1: P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
There’s an obvious but non-trivial implication of this theory. By minimizing the probability that an unintended outcome occurs (A’), we increase the probability that our intended outcome (A) occurs:Â P(A) = 1 – P(A’)
In The Wisdom of Insecurity, Alan Watts explores what he calls “the law of reversed effort” and how it applies to psychological security and a sense of individual purpose. Watts, writing in 1951, explains that a drive for efficient solutions, and a rigorous adherence to logic has led us down a path of setting impossible expectations for achieving impossible goals. He likens the dynamic to attempting to capture running water in a bucket. “If you try to capture running water in a bucket, it is clear that you do not understand it and that you will always be disappointed, for in the bucket the water does not run.”
Watts strikes a less-is-more tone by arguing that the number of causal connections and uncontrollable variables influencing the direction of our lives makes the prospect of constructing artificial happiness a fiction. “Nature and the universe will never ‘stay put’,” he argues, “it is like a beautiful woman who will never be caught, and whose very flightiness is her charm.”
The prescription Watts gives for achieving a life of stability is to foster a vision “of life as it is, of what we are, and what we are doing. Without such understanding… It is like walking busily in a fog: you just go round and round. You do not know where you are going, nor what results you really want.”
Paradoxically, Watts’s vision of “life as it is, of what we are, and what we are doing” is far from clear and most closely resembles a fog. To minimize the frustration and disappointment of being constantly lost in it, Watts would advise slowing down, accepting the fog and the external uncertainty it represents. “The greater the scientist, the more he is impressed with his ignorance of reality,” he claims. “What he does not know seems to increase in geometric progression to what he knows.” As we come to terms with external uncertainties, our internal insecurity (A’) will diminish, leading to a complementary rise in internal stability (A).